What do games with quarterback matchups of Bailey Zappe vs. Mitch Trubisky, Gardner Minshew vs. Jake Browning, Baker Mayfield vs. Desmond Ridder, and Jordan Love vs. Tommy DeVito all have in common? They all went Over in Week 14! While we’re at it, Zach Wilson led the Jets to 30 points against the Texans, resulting in that game going Over its total, while Joe Flacco led a similar charge in Cleveland resulting in their matchup with the Jaguars going Over the NFL odds total by 20 points!
Will Levis also dropped 28 on the Dolphins resulting in that game going Over, so anyone complaining about all the backups in 2023 needs to chill, because the backups were balling for the most part in Week 14. It helps that some of these games had incredibly low totals, though. Perhaps we’ve seen too much of an adjustment as four of the five totals in the 30s ended up going Over last week.
In other totals-related betting news, the primetime Under NFL betting trend that dominated the first three months of the season is starting to turn as the Over has hit in six of the seven primetime games over the past two weeks.
After Unders were hitting above the 60% mark for most of the season, that number has dipped to 56.5%. This week features eight (!!!) games with totals below 40, so the door appears open for Overs to continue to dominate during the stretch run of the season… even if a lot of teams are being quarterbacked by guys most casual fans have never even heard of.
So before you go making your Week 15 NFL picks, let’s break down some trends worth noting.
